Last week, the Fed hiked the Fed Funds Rate as expected by 75 basis points. This was the fourth consecutive 75-point hike. It's important to point out that these hikes are not for mortgage rates. The Fed Funds Rate is the interest rate for banks' overnight borrowing.
Although the Fed is desperately trying to get ahold of the runaway inflation, the Monetary Policy Statement state that they "will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments." This tells us that they may begin changing their approach to fighting inflation.
While it looked like the markets were going to respond positively, the glimmer of light quickly faded after Jerome Powell made it clear that he would rather risk overdoing the rate hikes instead of underdoing it, because the Fed can cut rates in the future.
Last week we also received the ADP Employment Report, which keeps track of private sector payrolls. The report was stronger than expected, however, the report for September was revised lower. The bulk of the job gains for October was among small to mid-sized companies. Annual Pay for employees who kept their current employment rose 7.7% on average, while those who changed jobs saw an increase of 15.2% on average.
The number of people filing for unemployment for the first time fell by 1,000 while the number of those who continue to receive benefits after their first claim rose by 47,000. This tells us that the pace of hiring is slower and that it has become harder to find a job.
The economic calendar is fairly quiet this week but the Consumer Price Index will be reported Thursday. In addition, we'll see how Tuesday's elections will effect the market. Stay tuned for the next breakdown!
